When the Berlin fell (was torn down!) and the USSR tossed itself onto the ash heap of history, Francis Fukuyama suggested that it might be "the end of history."

After the 2002 elections when the Republicans gained seats in the House and Senate while there are was a Republican President, some suggested that it might be the end of the Democrat Party.

Now, with a Democrat in the White House and Democrats in majority in the House and Senate, some are saying that it's surely the end of the Republican Party.

History is on-going. The Democrats managed not to collapse into nothingness after 2002. Why should 2008 or even 2009 be any different for Republicans or conservatives? It's all rather silly. The form may (and rightly should) change. But "the end" it is not. I'm not about to predict an automatic Republican resurgence in 2010. It's quite possible for them to screw up - just take a look at how well they did with NY-23 where they swerved so far off course that when a third candidate started gaining, the supposed Republican dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat. Unless that third party candidate was "caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl" that is a Career Limiting Move. If they repeat that performance, they will likely get the same result.

It's just that I've been seeing many posts or comments about the end of one party that seem silly to me. I've seen the exact same thing from the other side not that long ago. And I remember. It's not the end. It's just different for a while is all. The population that got tired of Republicans can, and will, eventually get tired of Democrats and almost certainly for about the exact same reasons. The details will change, but the cause-effect relationship will be pretty stable. And time marches on.

Current Mood: annoyed

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time." -- Abraham Lincoln

ACORN has been in the news, or some of the news at least, for a few days now. Actually, it was or should have been in the news since before the election in November. It wasn't, or only barely appeared in most places, often being part of a "look at those guys go nuts over nothing" sort of thing, with 'those guys' being Republicans, conservative, or those on the right. But it seemed that the Big Names in news media didn't really do much more than copy public relations releases.

A few days ago a video showed up revealing some decidely dubious advisings at an ACORN office. A couple amateurs posed as pimp and prostitute and sought advice on getting housing for a brothel, and not just that but one that would be trafficking in children. This seemed rather far out. How could this be? Oh well, once is just a fluke.

Then another video was released. They had done it again, with about the same results, in another city. What? Well, twice is merely a coincidence.

And then another video was released, made in another city. Again with the same result. Uh oh, that looks like a trend. There followed denials and claims that this bit had been tried in several cities, listing those where it had failed.

Oops. The next video was from a city on ACORN's list of places it hadn't worked. Unfortunately for them, it had. If three is a trend, what is four? "Oh, shit" perhaps? And then a fifth video was released. It had been recorded in another city on the list of places where it supposedly hadn't worked or would not be seen. Five? That must be "#%&^!!"

During this, it made some news on the net. It made news enough that Congress voted to not fund ACORN. It didn't make news, at least until after the vote, in places like the New York Times and ABC. Not only had the so-called MainStream Media not done the investigating, they weren't even reporting it until left without choice when a Congressional vote made it hard to ignore.

I said so-called MainStream Media. This is hardly the only place it has been falling down, merely the currently obvious one. I've heard it derided as the "drive-by media" and the "state run media" and a few other things. While there might be a drive-by mentality (hit, hit again, issue a correction later as an afterthought if need be - the damage will have been done) there is certainly no official state control. Perhaps it would be more accurate to call it the Big Incompetent Media.

The amateurs, the ones who did the real investigative reporting or at least something closer to it than ABC or NYT has done, didn't settle for a one-shot and publish. As mentioned earlier, once can be dismissed as a fluke and the few people involved blamed for poor judgment. And twice can be an unfortunate coincidence as we all know lots of people don't have the best judgment. But now, at the current count, it's been five times. These guys are not acting merely as reporters but, in a way, as scientists - they are showing that the results are reproducible. "If it keeps on happening, it's not coincidence." This indicates a systemic problem. I will not go so far as to say that ACORN will fold over this, but ACORN's influence has certainly taken a hit. I think it is a long overdue and much needed hit.

Current Mood: quixotic

Poll #4298 They jennies spared.
Open to: All, results viewable to: All

"Kanye West is a jackass."

Equus africanus asinus

The most fortunate in all of this is...

The downside of this is...

Current Mood: curious

Garrison Keillor has, finally, gotten into a hospital for treatment of a stroke. He's been on a waiting list for some time, clearly having had the attack November 2000.

Current Mood: mischievous

State of the Union, 16 Feb 2009

Current Mood: depressed

Poll #3197 E-bomb-ics
Open to: All, results viewable to: All

The name that should be used for the stimulus bill:

Other:

The Stimulus bill will be an economic...

Doubling the deficit in over two terms is...

Doubling the deficit with a single bill is...

Right now, the economy is in a state similar to:

A nation can spend its way to prosperity.

[Yes, I know I goofed when I wrote 'deficit' rather than 'debt'. Too late to fix that now.]

( A bit from a movie. )

Good luck and best wishes to... the United States of America.

Poll #3050 Zero
Open to: All, results viewable to: None

In four years Barack Obama will have...

In four years Joe Biden will have...

Current Mood: worried

Poll #2870 At least the shoe wasn't lit.
Open to: All, results viewable to: All

As of this date (16 December 2008) George W. Bush is...

Current Mood: mischievous

Sure, I've seen this. But I am not about to forget this.

At least not in Minnesota. Norm Coleman appears to have a very thin majority of the votes in the senate race. During the campaign he quoted Maimonides, "A person should see himself and the whole world as being on a knife edge, precisely and exquisitely balanced." It wouldn't take much to slip one way or the other. If the race is within 0.5% a recount is automatic under Minnesota law and the only thing that could stop it is if the person who didn't win the initial count waives the recount. Al Franken is not waiving and while I don't care at all for Franken I don't begrudge him the recount. The margin is well under 0.5%. It's a few hundred votes out of well over 2 million and using the last numbers from the Star-Tribune it's within 0.02%. The recounting won't really start until later this month and is apt to go into December.

Yes, Obama/Biden won the Presidency and Vice Presidency and many Democrats did get themselves elected or reelected to Congress. However there is not a "veto-proof majority" within the party. At least a few Republicans will have to go along with them to defeat a filibuster, though I expect them to get that few more often than not when a filibuster is threatened. The Republicans will have to choose carefully and only block the most egregiously bad ideas - and there will be some. No party is perfect, and no party is entirely free of stupidity.

It will be interesting, but hopefully not in the supposed Chinese curse way, to see how things happen. A President must make decisions. Simply voting "present" will not do. I think it was Truman who said that the key to leadership was to make decisions and not waffle around about everything. That doesn't mean sticking with a bad idea if that choice turns out to be crap. Truman also said, "Whenever I make a bum decision, I go out and make another one."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped again today (-486.01 points, or about -5%), which could be the business reaction to the election results. Of late, it could also simply be the usual shifting around with election reactions buried in the noise of other things. I have seen the business owners and self-employed on my friends list very worried about the upcoming administration. That doesn't give me a good feeling. These folks know economics very directly very well.

Other things that don't give me good feelings are seeing Obama's apparent stance on things shift overnight. He was saying the DC gun ban was perfectly fine until the Supreme Court said otherwise, then overnight he had always believed in the individual right to keep and bear arms. The attempted suppression of commercials pointing out his voting record shows that not only does he not grasp the second amendment, he fails to grasp the first as well. That makes me wonder what else he doesn't comprehend or is willing to ignore or erode. The call for "a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded" (as the military) is not exactly calming to say the least. That when he departed from prepared speeches and rehearsed answers he didn't merely stumble over his words (to be expected) but seemed to reveal an entirely different person than he was normally presenting, especially the "spread the wealth around" comment is also not comforting. That when news organizations came out and endorsed his opponent, their reporters were no longer welcome on his campaign reminds me of a Nixonian enemies list. That his positions during the campaign seemed to be ones that no President has taken since Hoover (a tax increase, which is what it will be when you run the numbers, during down economic times and raising of some trade barriers - things that took a nasty recession and turned it first into a depression and then into the Great Depression) doesn't bode well either. I've seen it said that there was a "Would you have a beer with this man?" issue. That's no big deal. Sure, I'd have a beer with him. What difference would it make, really? The classic question is, "Would you buy a used car from this man?" I would not.

Do I think he'll be as bad my last paragraph indicates? No, or at least I hope he won't be allowed to be that bad. He will moderate himself or be moderated by others. I do expect a burst of activity in the classic first 100 days, but not even having both houses of congress with large majorities of ones own party means rubber-stamping of everything all the time. It's two years to the mid-term elections and Representatives and some Senators will be keeping that in mind. It's unusual, though not unheard of, for the party holding the Presidency to gain seats in mid-term elections. Obama might well be at the peak of his popularity, or will be around January 20. Then the job gets very real, very fast, and spin doctoring can do so much. There will be real proposals to consider, real signatures of bills into law, or real vetoes of said bills. Even the dodge of leaving a bill on the desk unsigned until it becomes law, or (with the just the right timing) the "pocket veto" still leaves a record of laws and vetoes. There will be no voting "Present." Thus there will be a record. A record that will be most public, that while it can be spun, cannot be erased.

I don't have this great thrill that many do. I do foresee change. I am concerned that many of the changes, despite the hopes of many, will not be for the better. Could I be wrong? Of course. I'm rather hoping for that. But not expecting it. Mark Twain said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. " and I'm pretty sure I've heard this tune before and didn't like it.

Current Mood: worried

For those who didn't know it and and didn't bother to look it up: John Sidney McCain.

The poll I posted last night has drawn some interesting results. In the truly bizarre and most unlikely event that I should gain an Electoral majority as (near?) complete unknown who'd have to be as write-in, some would be appropriately concerned about it happened. Others would be celebrating, though I suspect some of those would use any reason to celebrate or to imbibe.

But the most interesting were the requests for political appointment. As of the writing of this post I potentially have:

- an Attorney General (LJ: michaelmink)
- a Federal Aviation administrator (jmaynard)
- a Secretary of Transportation (LJ: sideband)
- a United Nations ambassador unencumbered by diplomatic nonspeak (LJ: nefaria)

I'd need a few more to fill out the cabinet at least. While I could suggest some folks for some positions, it might be more amusing to open it to suggestion, which includes self-nomination.

The cabinet positions (including those mentioned above) are:

Secretary of State
Secretary of the Treasury
Secretary of Defense
Attorney General
Secretary of the Interior
Secretary of Agriculture
Secretary of Commerce
Secretary of Labor
Secretary of Health and Human Services
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
Secretary of Transportation
Secretary of Energy
Secretary of Education
Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Secretary of Homeland Security

Oh, there are also these spots to fill:

White House Chief of Staff
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
Director of the Office of Management and Budget
Director of the National Drug Control Policy
United States Trade Representative

Whew, and that's just the way upper level stuff.

Who ought to get what?

Current Mood: mischievous

Chances are you know Barack Obama's middle name as it has come up during the campaign. But never mind that. Without looking it up, do you know John McCain's middle name?

Poll #2639 John $NAME McCain
Open to: All, results viewable to: All

John McCain's middle name is

Poll #2633 Premeditating Election Aftermath
Open to: All, results viewable to: All

If McCain wins the election I'll...

If Obama wins the election I'll...

If Vakko wins the election,

Come the next Tuesday night or Wednesday morning even if things go roughly as many predict or hope, there will likely be a significant difference between actual ballots and exit polls, and greater difference between actual ballots and pre-election polls. This has happened for at least the last couple elections and some have taken it as meaning there had to be tampering and dirty tricks. There might well be some of that, but ballot and poll mismatch is not evidence of it. No poll is perfect. Not every sample is truly representative. Polling is done hopefully big enough, hopefully often enough, and hopefully good enough to narrow the unknowable.

Iowahawk often posts parody of goings on in the world. One of his recent posts is not a parody but an analysis of statistics. It's not as dry that might sound and he takes care of all the math anyway. It's worth a read.

While walking down the street one day a "Member of Congress" is tragically hit by a truck and dies.

His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.

"Welcome to heaven," says St. Peter. "Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you."

"No problem, just let me in," says the man.

"Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity."

"Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven," he says.

"I'm sorry, but we have our rules."

And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him.

Everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people.

They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar and champagne.

Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly & nice guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it is time to go.

Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator rises...

The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens on heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.

"Now it's time to visit heaven."

So, 24 hours pass with him joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.

"Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity."

He reflects for a minute, then he answers: "Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell."

So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell.

Now the doors of the elevator open and he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.

He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.

The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. "I don't understand. Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened?"

( Punchline )

Current Mood: quixotic

Poll #2535 Election Presults
Open to: All, results viewable to: All

I would like to see:

I expect to see:

If I could, I'd rather vote for:

Current Mood: blah

Since it's October and Halloween is nearing, let's see what the scariest things are:

Poll #2470
Open to: All, results viewable to: All

The scariest is...

The scariest is...

The scariest is...

The scariest is...

Poll #2442
Open to: All, results viewable to: None

Barack Obama is...